Sporting de Cabinda 2–0 Desportivo Huíla

Sporting de Cabinda

FT

2 – 0

Desportivo Huíla

10/8/2022

Girabola · Round 3Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda39%

×Draw30%

Desportivo Huíla31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting de CabindaExpected goals in this matchDesportivo Huíla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.97

Sporting de Cabinda

1.14

Desportivo Huíla

0.97

Sporting de Cabinda creates 18% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 100 away

1.07

creates per match

0.76

1.18

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda

1.07

Desportivo Huíla

0.76

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda

1.18

Desportivo Huíla

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Desportivo Huíla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw

69%

Sporting de Cabinda or Desportivo Huíla

70%

Draw or Desportivo Huíla

61%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+

16%

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals

68%

Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals

32%

Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals

11%

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals

62%

Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals

25%

Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)

56%

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 67 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 1.07 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more

39%

level

30%

Desportivo Huíla scores more

31%

Sporting de Cabinda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sporting de Cabinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff