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Sporting de Benguela vs Santa Rita — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
FT
0 – 0
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
9/25/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 1Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sporting de Benguela32%
×Draw28%
Santa Rita40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Benguela
1.07
Santa Rita
1.23

Santa Rita creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sporting de Benguela
0.83
Santa Rita
0.50

allows per match

Sporting de Benguela
1.97
Santa Rita
1.32

finishing

Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Benguela ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sporting de Benguela or draw
60%
Sporting de Benguela or Santa Rita
72%
Draw or Santa Rita
68%

Winning margin

Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
12%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
66%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
29%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
9%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
71%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
35%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
45%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Benguela at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.83 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Sporting de Benguela defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sporting de Benguela scores more
32%
level
28%
Santa Rita scores more
40%

Santa Rita at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting de Benguela vs Santa Rita

Sporting de Benguela and Santa Rita drew 0-0 in Girabola on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa in Benguela.