Sporting de Benguela 1–2 Recreativo do Libolo

Sporting de Benguela

FT

1 – 2

Recreativo do Libolo

12/15/2021

Girabola · Round 12Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sporting de Benguela30%

×Draw27%

Recreativo do Libolo43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting de BenguelaExpected goals in this matchRecreativo do Libolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.34

Sporting de Benguela

1.08

Recreativo do Libolo

1.34

Recreativo do Libolo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 99 away

0.83

creates per match

0.72

1.97

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sporting de Benguela

0.83

Recreativo do Libolo

0.72

allows per match

Sporting de Benguela

1.97

Recreativo do Libolo

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Benguela ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sporting de Benguela or draw

57%

Sporting de Benguela or Recreativo do Libolo

73%

Draw or Recreativo do Libolo

70%

Winning margin

Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+

12%

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals

66%

Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals

29%

Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals

10%

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

74%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

39%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)

41%

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Benguela at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.83 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.72 + Sporting de Benguela defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting de Benguela scores more

30%

level

27%

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

43%

Recreativo do Libolo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff