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Sporting de Benguela vs Recreativo da Caála — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
FT
0 – 3
Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
1/22/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 16Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sporting de Benguela29%
×Draw27%
Recreativo da Caála44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Benguela
1.03
Recreativo da Caála
1.35

Recreativo da Caála creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 50 away

creates per match

Sporting de Benguela
0.83
Recreativo da Caála
0.74

allows per match

Sporting de Benguela
1.97
Recreativo da Caála
1.24

finishing

Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par
Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Benguela ↓

Recreativo da Caála →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sporting de Benguela or draw
56%
Sporting de Benguela or Recreativo da Caála
73%
Draw or Recreativo da Caála
71%

Winning margin

Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
11%
Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
64%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
28%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
9%
Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
74%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
39%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
39%
Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Benguela at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.83 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.74 + Sporting de Benguela defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting de Benguela scores more
29%
level
27%
Recreativo da Caála scores more
44%

Recreativo da Caála at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Recreativo da Caála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting de Benguela vs Recreativo da Caála

Recreativo da Caála beat Sporting de Benguela 3-0 in Girabola on January 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.