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Sporting de Benguela vs Desportivo Huíla — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
FT
2 – 1
Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
2/19/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 19Estádio de São Filipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sporting de Benguela28%
×Draw27%
Desportivo Huíla45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Benguela
1.02
Desportivo Huíla
1.36

Desportivo Huíla creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sporting de Benguela
0.83
Desportivo Huíla
0.76

allows per match

Sporting de Benguela
1.97
Desportivo Huíla
1.21

finishing

Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par
Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Benguela ↓

Desportivo Huíla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sporting de Benguela or draw
55%
Sporting de Benguela or Desportivo Huíla
73%
Draw or Desportivo Huíla
72%

Winning margin

Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
10%
Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
64%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
27%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
8%
Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
74%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
39%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
39%
Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Benguela at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.83 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Sporting de Benguela defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sporting de Benguela scores more
28%
level
27%
Desportivo Huíla scores more
45%

Desportivo Huíla at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting de Benguela vs Desportivo Huíla

Sporting de Benguela beat Desportivo Huíla 2-1 in Girabola on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio de São Filipe in Benguela.