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Sporting de Benguela vs Académica do Lobito — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
4/16/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 26Estádio de São Filipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sporting de Benguela30%
×Draw27%
Académica do Lobito42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Benguela
1.07
Académica do Lobito
1.32

Académica do Lobito creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sporting de Benguela
0.83
Académica do Lobito
0.68

allows per match

Sporting de Benguela
1.97
Académica do Lobito
1.32

finishing

Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par
Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Benguela ↓

Académica do Lobito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sporting de Benguela or draw
58%
Sporting de Benguela or Académica do Lobito
73%
Draw or Académica do Lobito
70%

Winning margin

Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
12%
Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
66%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
29%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
9%
Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
73%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
38%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
42%
Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Benguela at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.83 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + Sporting de Benguela defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting de Benguela scores more
30%
level
27%
Académica do Lobito scores more
42%

Académica do Lobito at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Académica do Lobito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting de Benguela vs Académica do Lobito

Sporting de Benguela and Académica do Lobito drew 1-1 in Girabola on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio de São Filipe in Benguela.