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Sporting Cristal W vs Flamengo FBC W — Liga Women 2026

Sporting Cristal W
Sporting Cristal W
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Flamengo FBC W
Flamengo FBC W
5/3/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Apertura - 5Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sporting Cristal W87%
×Draw8%
Flamengo FBC W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Cristal W
3.81
Flamengo FBC W
0.84

Sporting Cristal W creates 354% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sporting Cristal W
4.63
Flamengo FBC W
0.80

allows per match

Sporting Cristal W
0.88
Flamengo FBC W
3.00

finishing

Sporting Cristal W+0.00on par
Flamengo FBC W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal W ↓

Flamengo FBC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal W or draw
95%
Sporting Cristal W or Flamengo FBC W
92%
Draw or Flamengo FBC W
13%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal W wins by 2+
72%
Flamengo FBC W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal W 1+ goals
98%
Sporting Cristal W 2+ goals
88%
Sporting Cristal W 3+ goals
71%
Flamengo FBC W 1+ goals
57%
Flamengo FBC W 2+ goals
21%
Flamengo FBC W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal W (draw refunded)
95%
Flamengo FBC W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal W at home — creates 4.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Flamengo FBC W away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal W attack 4.63 + Flamengo FBC W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.81

Flamengo FBC W attack 0.80 + Sporting Cristal W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Sporting Cristal W scores more
87%
level
8%
Flamengo FBC W scores more
5%

Sporting Cristal W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Sporting Cristal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Women: Sporting Cristal W 5–1 Flamengo FBC W

Sporting Cristal W beat Flamengo FBC W 5-1 in Liga Women on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.