Sporting Cristal W 8–1 FBC Melgar W: Result & Stats

Sporting Cristal W

FT

8 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

FBC Melgar W

6/20/2026

Liga Women · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sporting Cristal W82%

×Draw10%

FBC Melgar W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Cristal WExpected goals in this matchFBC Melgar W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.73

1.10

Sporting Cristal W

3.73

FBC Melgar W

1.10

Sporting Cristal W creates 239% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

4.63

creates per match

1.33

0.88

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Sporting Cristal W

4.63

FBC Melgar W

1.33

allows per match

Sporting Cristal W

0.88

FBC Melgar W

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Cristal W+0.00on par

FBC Melgar W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal W ↓

FBC Melgar W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal W or draw

93%

Sporting Cristal W or FBC Melgar W

90%

Draw or FBC Melgar W

18%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal W wins by 2+

66%

FBC Melgar W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal W 1+ goals

97%

Sporting Cristal W 2+ goals

88%

Sporting Cristal W 3+ goals

69%

FBC Melgar W 1+ goals

67%

FBC Melgar W 2+ goals

30%

FBC Melgar W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal W (draw refunded)

92%

FBC Melgar W (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal W at home — creates 4.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

FBC Melgar W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal W attack 4.63 + FBC Melgar W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.73

FBC Melgar W attack 1.33 + Sporting Cristal W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Sporting Cristal W scores more

82%

level

10%

FBC Melgar W scores more

7%

Sporting Cristal W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Sporting Cristal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff