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Sporting Cristal W vs Carlos Mannucci W — Liga Women 2026

Sporting Cristal W
Sporting Cristal W
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Carlos Mannucci W
Carlos Mannucci W
5/24/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Apertura - 9Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sporting Cristal W95%
×Draw4%
Carlos Mannucci W1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Cristal W
4.52
Carlos Mannucci W
0.44

Sporting Cristal W creates 927% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sporting Cristal W
4.63
Carlos Mannucci W
0.00

allows per match

Sporting Cristal W
0.88
Carlos Mannucci W
4.40

finishing

Sporting Cristal W+0.00on par
Carlos Mannucci W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal W ↓

Carlos Mannucci W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–015%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (15%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
67%33%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal W or draw
99%
Sporting Cristal W or Carlos Mannucci W
96%
Draw or Carlos Mannucci W
5%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal W wins by 2+
86%
Carlos Mannucci W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal W 1+ goals
99%
Sporting Cristal W 2+ goals
93%
Sporting Cristal W 3+ goals
79%
Carlos Mannucci W 1+ goals
36%
Carlos Mannucci W 2+ goals
7%
Carlos Mannucci W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal W (draw refunded)
99%
Carlos Mannucci W (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal W at home — creates 4.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Carlos Mannucci W away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal W attack 4.63 + Carlos Mannucci W defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 4.52

Carlos Mannucci W attack 0.00 + Sporting Cristal W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Sporting Cristal W scores more
95%
level
4%
Carlos Mannucci W scores more
1%

Sporting Cristal W at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Sporting Cristal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Cristal W vs Carlos Mannucci W

Sporting Cristal W beat Carlos Mannucci W 7-0 in Liga Women on May 24, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.