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Sporting Cristal vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
4/14/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Sporting Cristal63%
×Draw21%
UTC Cajamarca16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Cristal
1.94
UTC Cajamarca
0.86

Sporting Cristal creates 126% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 144 away

creates per match

Sporting Cristal
2.25
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

Sporting Cristal
0.82
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw
84%
Sporting Cristal or UTC Cajamarca
79%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
37%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
38%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
86%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
58%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
30%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
58%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
21%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
80%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.82 · 152 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.25 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more
63%
level
21%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
16%

Sporting Cristal at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Sporting Cristal 3–1 UTC Cajamarca

Sporting Cristal beat UTC Cajamarca 3-1 in Primera División on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.