Sporting Cristal 1–2 UCV Moquegua: Result & Stats

Sporting Cristal

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

UCV Moquegua

M. Tavara 53' (pen)

C. Mejia 46'

E. Lastre 15'

4/3/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sporting Cristal68%

×Draw20%

UCV Moquegua11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchUCV Moquegua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.63

Sporting Cristal

1.93

UCV Moquegua

0.63

Sporting Cristal creates 206% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 9 away

2.18

creates per match

0.44

0.82

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

2.18

UCV Moquegua

0.44

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

0.82

UCV Moquegua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

UCV Moquegua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

89%

Sporting Cristal or UCV Moquegua

80%

Draw or UCV Moquegua

32%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

42%

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

85%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

57%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

30%

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals

47%

UCV Moquegua 2+ goals

13%

UCV Moquegua 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

86%

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.82 · 147 matches

UCV Moquegua away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.18 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.93

UCV Moquegua attack 0.44 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

68%

level

20%

UCV Moquegua scores more

11%

Sporting Cristal at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

E. Lastre

UCV Moquegua · M

7.9

Match Events

15'

E. Lastre↳ R. Chipao

17'

Cristian Enciso

46'

C. Mejia

51'

Rafael LutigerPenalty confirmed

53'

M. TavaraPenalty

58'

M. Rodriguez← L. Iberico

58'

G. Castillo← M. Tavara

62'

Nicolas Amasifuen

72'

F. Vizeu← I. Avila

72'

Y. del Valle← Cristiano

72'

76'

83'

83'

84'

J. Lopez← J. Collazos

85'

Gustavo Cazonatti

87'

Yorman Zapata

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingUCV

Overview

78%Possession22%

10Total Shots11

10Corners3

5Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target5

5Off Target5

2Blocked1

9Inside Box8

1Outside Box3

Passing

78%Possession22%

554Total Passes157

488Accurate Passes94

88%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Sporting Cristal vs UCV Moquegua

UCV Moquegua beat Sporting Cristal 2-1 in Primera División on April 3, 2026.

Goals: E. Lastre (15'), C. Mejia (46'), M. Tavara (53' pen).

Sporting Cristal controlled possession (78%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.

Sporting Cristal vs UCV Moquegua — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sporting Cristal vs UCV Moquegua