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Sporting Cristal vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
3/7/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sporting Cristal65%
×Draw20%
Carlos Stein15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Cristal
2.08
Carlos Stein
0.86

Sporting Cristal creates 142% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sporting Cristal
2.25
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

Sporting Cristal
0.82
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw
85%
Sporting Cristal or Carlos Stein
80%
Draw or Carlos Stein
35%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
41%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
87%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
61%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
34%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
58%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
21%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
82%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.82 · 152 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.25 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.08

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more
65%
level
20%
Carlos Stein scores more
15%

Sporting Cristal at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Cristal vs Carlos Stein

Carlos Stein beat Sporting Cristal 1-0 in Primera División on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.