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Sporting CP W vs Sporting Braga W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Sporting CP W
Sporting CP W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sporting Braga W
Sporting Braga W
4/4/20261a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 15CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sporting CP W54%
×Draw21%
Sporting Braga W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP W
2.07
Sporting Braga W
1.33

Sporting CP W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sporting CP W
2.88
Sporting Braga W
2.07

allows per match

Sporting CP W
0.60
Sporting Braga W
1.26

finishing

Sporting CP W+0.00on par
Sporting Braga W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP W ↓

Sporting Braga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sporting CP W or draw
76%
Sporting CP W or Sporting Braga W
79%
Draw or Sporting Braga W
46%

Winning margin

Sporting CP W wins by 2+
32%
Sporting Braga W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sporting CP W 1+ goals
87%
Sporting CP W 2+ goals
61%
Sporting CP W 3+ goals
34%
Sporting Braga W 1+ goals
74%
Sporting Braga W 2+ goals
38%
Sporting Braga W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP W (draw refunded)
69%
Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.60 · 42 matches

Sporting Braga W away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP W attack 2.88 + Sporting Braga W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 2.07

Sporting Braga W attack 2.07 + Sporting CP W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sporting CP W scores more
54%
level
21%
Sporting Braga W scores more
24%

Sporting CP W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sporting CP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting CP W vs Sporting Braga W

Sporting CP W beat Sporting Braga W 3-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira in Alcochete.