Sporting CP W 3–0 Amora W: Result & Stats

Sporting CP W

FT

3 – 0

Amora W

3/12/2023

1a Divisão - Women · Round 15CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting CP W87%

×Draw9%

Amora W4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP WExpected goals in this matchAmora W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.35

0.62

Sporting CP W

3.35

Amora W

0.62

Sporting CP W creates 440% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 11 away

2.88

creates per match

0.64

0.60

allows per match

3.82

creates per match

Sporting CP W

2.88

Amora W

0.64

allows per match

Sporting CP W

0.60

Amora W

3.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP W+0.00on par

Amora W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP W ↓

Amora W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Sporting CP W or draw

96%

Sporting CP W or Amora W

91%

Draw or Amora W

13%

Winning margin

Sporting CP W wins by 2+

71%

Amora W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Sporting CP W 1+ goals

96%

Sporting CP W 2+ goals

84%

Sporting CP W 3+ goals

63%

Amora W 1+ goals

46%

Amora W 2+ goals

13%

Amora W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP W (draw refunded)

96%

Amora W (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.60 · 42 matches

Amora W away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP W attack 2.88 + Amora W defence 3.82 → ÷2 → 3.35

Amora W attack 0.64 + Sporting CP W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Sporting CP W scores more

87%

level

9%

Amora W scores more

4%

Sporting CP W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Sporting CP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff