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Sporting CP vs Varzim — Taça de Portugal 2018

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Varzim
Varzim
11/18/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sporting CP71%
×Draw17%
Varzim12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
2.40
Varzim
0.88

Sporting CP creates 173% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
3.17
Varzim
1.25

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.50
Varzim
1.63

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par
Varzim+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Varzim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
88%
Sporting CP or Varzim
83%
Draw or Varzim
29%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
48%
Varzim wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
91%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
69%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
42%
Varzim 1+ goals
59%
Varzim 2+ goals
22%
Varzim 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
85%
Varzim (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Varzim away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 3.17 + Varzim defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.40

Varzim attack 1.25 + Sporting CP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sporting CP scores more
71%
level
17%
Varzim scores more
12%

Sporting CP at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting CP vs Varzim

Sporting CP beat Varzim 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.