Sporting CP 4–0 Tondela: Result & Stats

Sporting CP

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Tondela

V. Gyökeres 46', 37'

Pote 16', 11'

1/9/2024

Taça de Portugal · Round of 16Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sporting CP67%

×Draw18%

Tondela15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CPExpected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.00

Sporting CP

2.33

Tondela

1.00

Sporting CP creates 133% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

3.17

creates per match

1.50

0.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sporting CP

3.17

Tondela

1.50

allows per match

Sporting CP

0.50

Tondela

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par

Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Tondela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw

85%

Sporting CP or Tondela

82%

Draw or Tondela

33%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+

44%

Tondela wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals

90%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

67%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

41%

Tondela 1+ goals

63%

Tondela 2+ goals

26%

Tondela 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

82%

Tondela (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 3.17 + Tondela defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.33

Tondela attack 1.50 + Sporting CP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sporting CP scores more

67%

level

18%

Tondela scores more

15%

Sporting CP at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Pote

16'

Pote

37'

V. Gyökeres

46'

Matheus Reis← Rafael Pontelo

46'

M. Hjulmand← Pote

46'

V. Gyökeres

57'

André Ceitil← Hélder Tavares

57'

Daniel dos Anjos← Cuba

57'

Costinha← António Xavier

59'

S. Coates← Gonçalo Inácio

59'

Afonso Moreira← V. Gyökeres

72'

Pedro Maranhão← Ricardo Alves

73'

Dário Essugo← Daniel Bragança

76'

Lucas Barros← Luís Rocha

Statistics

SportingTondela

Overview

8Corners2