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Sporting CP vs Pacos Ferreira — Primeira Liga 2018

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
4/3/2022Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 28Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sporting CP64%
×Draw21%
Pacos Ferreira15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
1.94
Pacos Ferreira
0.79

Sporting CP creates 146% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
2.36
Pacos Ferreira
0.90

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.67
Pacos Ferreira
1.51

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par
Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Pacos Ferreira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
85%
Sporting CP or Pacos Ferreira
79%
Draw or Pacos Ferreira
36%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
39%
Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
86%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
58%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
30%
Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
55%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
19%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
82%
Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.67 · 136 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.36 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.94

Pacos Ferreira attack 0.90 + Sporting CP defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting CP scores more
64%
level
21%
Pacos Ferreira scores more
15%

Sporting CP at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Sporting CP 2–0 Pacos Ferreira

Sporting CP beat Pacos Ferreira 2-0 in Primeira Liga on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.