Sporting CP vs Pacos Ferreira — Taça de Portugal 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Sporting CP62%
Pacos Ferreira19%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sporting CP creates 96% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sporting CP ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sporting CP at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches
Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sporting CP attack 3.17 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.21
Pacos Ferreira attack 1.75 + Sporting CP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Sporting CP at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Sporting CP host Pacos Ferreira on Friday, 11 December 2020 at 21:15. The match is part of the Taça de Portugal 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Sporting CP vs Pacos Ferreira
Sporting CP beat Pacos Ferreira 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on December 11, 2020.
Goals: Tiago Tomás (26'), Bruno Tabata (44'), João Palhinha (64').
The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.