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Sporting CP vs Guimaraes — League #97 2026

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Guimaraes
Guimaraesadvanced
1/6/2026League #97League #97 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sporting CP49%
×Draw21%
Guimaraes30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
2.17
Guimaraes
1.67

Sporting CP creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
3.00
Guimaraes
2.00

allows per match

Sporting CP
1.33
Guimaraes
1.33

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par
Guimaraes+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Guimaraes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
70%
Sporting CP or Guimaraes
79%
Draw or Guimaraes
51%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
29%
Guimaraes wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
89%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
64%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
36%
Guimaraes 1+ goals
81%
Guimaraes 2+ goals
50%
Guimaraes 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
62%
Guimaraes (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Guimaraes away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 3.00 + Guimaraes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Guimaraes attack 2.00 + Sporting CP defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sporting CP scores more
49%
level
21%
Guimaraes scores more
30%

Sporting CP at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting CP vs Guimaraes

Guimaraes beat Sporting CP 2-1 in League #97 on January 6, 2026.