Sporting CP 8–0 Dumiense: Result & Stats

Sporting CP

FT

8 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dumiense

11/26/2023

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sporting CP79%

×Draw12%

Dumiense10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CPExpected goals in this matchDumiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.58

1.25

Sporting CP

3.58

Dumiense

1.25

Sporting CP creates 186% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

3.17

creates per match

2.00

0.50

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Sporting CP

3.17

Dumiense

2.00

allows per match

Sporting CP

0.50

Dumiense

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par

Dumiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Dumiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw

90%

Sporting CP or Dumiense

88%

Draw or Dumiense

21%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+

61%

Dumiense wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals

97%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

86%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

67%

Dumiense 1+ goals

71%

Dumiense 2+ goals

36%

Dumiense 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

89%

Dumiense (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Dumiense away — creates 2.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 3.17 + Dumiense defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.58

Dumiense attack 2.00 + Sporting CP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Sporting CP scores more

79%

level

12%

Dumiense scores more

10%

Sporting CP at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff