Sporting CP U19 3–2 Kairat U19: Result & Stats

Sporting CP U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Kairat U19

D. Martins 56'

F. Goncalves 23'

D. Ciesielski 13'

A. Tuyakbaev 77', 70'

9/18/2025

UEFA Youth League · League Stage - 1Cidade do Futebol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sporting CP U1956%

×Draw21%

Kairat U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP U19Expected goals in this matchKairat U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.32

Sporting CP U19

2.12

Kairat U19

1.32

Sporting CP U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.83

creates per match

1.40

1.25

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Sporting CP U19

1.83

Kairat U19

1.40

allows per match

Sporting CP U19

1.25

Kairat U19

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP U19+0.00on par

Kairat U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP U19 ↓

Kairat U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sporting CP U19 or draw

76%

Sporting CP U19 or Kairat U19

79%

Draw or Kairat U19

44%

Winning margin

Sporting CP U19 wins by 2+

33%

Kairat U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sporting CP U19 1+ goals

88%

Sporting CP U19 2+ goals

62%

Sporting CP U19 3+ goals

35%

Kairat U19 1+ goals

73%

Kairat U19 2+ goals

38%

Kairat U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Kairat U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Kairat U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP U19 attack 1.83 + Kairat U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.12

Kairat U19 attack 1.40 + Sporting CP U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sporting CP U19 scores more

56%

level

21%

Kairat U19 scores more

24%

Sporting CP U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sporting CP U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

D. Ciesielski↳ C. Grombahi

23'

F. Goncalves↳ D. Costa

45+1'

M. Abish

46'

A. Toleukhan← R. Bagdat

46'

K. Makhametzhan← M. Abish

56'

D. Martins

59'

D. Santos← D. Costa

59'

M. Almeida← D. Martins

61'

A. Mussaipov← A. Abdrakhmanov

66'

S. Nascimento← R. Camacho

66'

R. Momade← C. Grombahi

70'

A. Tuyakbaev

76'

J. Rijo← A. Lee

76'

S. Nurbolat← Y. Petrik

77'

A. Tuyakbaev

Sporting

Kairat

30

36

59

35

47

42

▼

Abish

86

▼

Abdrakhma

37

▼

Petrik

87

⚽2

Tuyakbaev

81

Bekbolat

89

▼

Bagdat

1

Gouveia

2

A

▼

Costa

3

⚽

Ciesielsk

6

Felicissi

5

▼

Lee

4

Dominguez

8

▼

Camacho

10

⚽

Goncalves

9

⚽

▼

Martins

7

A

▼

Grombahi

11

Blopa

Manager: João Pedro Baptista dos Santos Brito Gião

59'▲D. Santos←▼D. Costa

59'▲M. Almeida←▼D. Martins

66'▲S. Nascimento←▼R. Camacho

66'▲R. Momade←▼C. Grombahi

76'▲J. Rijo←▼A. Lee

Sporting CP U19 substitutes

22Tverdohlebov13Rijo14Santos15Nascimento16Simao17Momade18Sanha19Almeida20Gomes

Manager: Zhora Arutyunyan

46'▲A. Toleukhan←▼R. Bagdat

46'▲K. Makhametzhan←▼M. Abish

61'▲A. Mussaipov←▼A. Abdrakhmanov

76'▲S. Nurbolat←▼Y. Petrik

Kairat U19 substitutes

98Aldashev43Toleukhan46Nurbolat53Shen83Makhametzhan84Mussaipov

UEFA Youth League: Sporting CP U19 3–2 Kairat U19

Sporting CP U19 beat Kairat U19 3-2 in UEFA Youth League on September 18, 2025.

Goals: D. Ciesielski (13'), F. Goncalves (23'), D. Martins (56'), A. Tuyakbaev (70', 77').

The match was played at Cidade do Futebol in Lisbon - Oeiras.

Sporting CP U19 vs Kairat U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Sporting CP U19 3–2 Kairat U19