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Sporting CP B vs União de Leiria — Segunda Liga 2018

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
Preview
15:00
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
4/4/2027Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 28CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira
Big match
40%
União de Leiria
model favours
34%26%40%

União de Leiria have won 5 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B34%
×Draw26%
União de Leiria40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.27
União de Leiria
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
União de Leiria
1.37

allows per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
União de Leiria
1.14

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
60%
Sporting CP B or União de Leiria
74%
Draw or União de Leiria
66%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
15%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
72%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
36%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
14%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
75%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
40%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
46%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
34%
level
26%
União de Leiria scores more
40%

União de Leiria at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sporting CP B
Balanced
União de Leiria
Balanced
55%Possession51%
82%Pass accuracy82%
10.2ShotsBiggest gap9.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sporting CP BUnião de Leiria

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Sporting CP B
0
Draws
5
União de Leiria
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 33%
1–31–00–10–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
B
DLLLL
Leiria
WLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sporting CP B host União de Leiria

April 4, 2027: Sporting CP B take on União de Leiria in Segunda Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sporting CP B host União de Leiria at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.