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Sporting CP B vs Real — Liga 3 2021

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real
Real
10/8/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 5CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sporting CP B43%
×Draw27%
Real30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.34
Real
1.08

Sporting CP B creates 24% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
1.47
Real
1.21

allows per match

Sporting CP B
0.95
Real
1.21

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
Real+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
70%
Sporting CP B or Real
73%
Draw or Real
57%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
20%
Real wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
74%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
39%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
15%
Real 1+ goals
66%
Real 2+ goals
29%
Real 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
59%
Real (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 58 matches

Real away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.47 + Real defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Real attack 1.21 + Sporting CP B defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
43%
level
27%
Real scores more
30%

Sporting CP B at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting CP B vs Real

Sporting CP B beat Real 1-0 in Liga 3 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.