Sporting CP B 4–0 Rabo Peixe: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rabo Peixe

M. De Wit 72'

Elves 62', 17'

G. Plata 52'

3/7/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 19CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting CP B60%

×Draw23%

Rabo Peixe17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchRabo Peixe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.82

Sporting CP B

1.77

Rabo Peixe

0.82

Sporting CP B creates 116% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.27

creates per match

1.09

0.55

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Sporting CP B

2.27

Rabo Peixe

1.09

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.55

Rabo Peixe

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Rabo Peixe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

83%

Sporting CP B or Rabo Peixe

77%

Draw or Rabo Peixe

40%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

34%

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

83%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

53%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

26%

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals

56%

Rabo Peixe 2+ goals

20%

Rabo Peixe 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

78%

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Rabo Peixe away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 2.27 + Rabo Peixe defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rabo Peixe attack 1.09 + Sporting CP B defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

60%

level

23%

Rabo Peixe scores more

17%

Sporting CP B at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

52'

62'

63'

63'

70'

D. Mitrovski← Tomás Silva

70'

Tiago Ferreira← G. Plata

72'

K. Owuso-Achau← S. Brou

72'

M. De Wit

75'

João Daniel← Luiz Phellype

75'

Loide Augusto← M. De Wit

Sporting

Rabo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Wit

⚽2

▼

Elves

⚽

▼

Plata

Manager: Filipe Çelikkaya

63'▲Nuno Moreira←▼Elves

70'▲D. Mitrovski←▼Tomás Silva

70'▲Tiago Ferreira←▼G. Plata

75'▲João Daniel←▼Luiz Phellype

75'▲Loide Augusto←▼M. De Wit

Sporting CP B substitutes

MoreiraMitrovskiFerreiraDanielAugusto

Manager: Manuel Matias

63'▲Hugo Moniz←▼Jardel

72'▲K. Owuso-Achau←▼S. Brou

Rabo Peixe substitutes

MonizOwuso-Achau

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Sporting CP B 4–0 Rabo Peixe

Sporting CP B beat Rabo Peixe 4-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on March 7, 2021.

Goals: Elves (17', 62'), G. Plata (52'), M. De Wit (72').

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.

Sporting CP B vs Rabo Peixe — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Sporting CP B 4–0 Rabo Peixe