Sporting CP B 4–3 Portimonense: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Portimonense

S. Justo 81'

P. Cardoso 71'

S. Blopa 49'

Bruno Ramos 9'

M. Dju 90'

Mateus Sarara 40'

W. Cagro 35'

2/15/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 22CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B43%

×Draw26%

Portimonense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchPortimonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.19

Sporting CP B

1.44

Portimonense

1.19

Sporting CP B creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 40 away

1.41

creates per match

0.97

1.41

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.41

Portimonense

0.97

allows per match

Sporting CP B

1.41

Portimonense

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Portimonense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

69%

Sporting CP B or Portimonense

74%

Draw or Portimonense

57%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

21%

Portimonense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

76%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

42%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

18%

Portimonense 1+ goals

70%

Portimonense 2+ goals

33%

Portimonense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

58%

Portimonense (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + Portimonense defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Portimonense attack 0.97 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

43%

level

26%

Portimonense scores more

31%

Sporting CP B at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

87

P. Cardoso

Sporting CP B · F

8.2

Match Events

9'

Bruno Ramos↳ M. Couto

33'

Paulo Cardoso

35'

W. Cagro

40'

Mateus Sarara↳ Thauan Lara

45+2'

Alexandre Fernando

46'

S. Blopa← J. Muniz

46'

E. Felicissimo← Rayan Lucas

49'

S. Blopa↳ E. Felicissimo

52'

Marlon Junior

63'

M. Mendonca← M. Tanlongo

64'

Manuel Mendonça

71'

P. Cardoso

75'

S. Neves← A. Abel

78'

Z. Bafdili← M. Couto

81'

S. Justo↳ Z. Bafdili

85'

Kaua Oliveira← S. Justo

86'

M. Dauda← Joao Reis

86'

F. Canario← Thauan Lara

90'

M. Dju

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingPortimonense

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots18

3Corners7

15Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots18

6On Target9

6Off Target3

2Blocked6

9Inside Box14

5Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

413Total Passes367

339Accurate Passes282

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0