Sporting CP B 3–2 Oriental Lisboa: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Oriental Lisboa

Pedro Marques 56'

Duarte Coelho 49' (OG)

Rafael Camacho 44'

Vitor Fati 86'

Herlander 47'

1/17/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 12CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting CP B64%

×Draw22%

Oriental Lisboa14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchOriental Lisboa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.69

Sporting CP B

1.81

Oriental Lisboa

0.69

Sporting CP B creates 162% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.27

creates per match

0.82

0.55

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sporting CP B

2.27

Oriental Lisboa

0.82

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.55

Oriental Lisboa

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Oriental Lisboa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

86%

Sporting CP B or Oriental Lisboa

78%

Draw or Oriental Lisboa

36%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

38%

Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

84%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

54%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

27%

Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals

50%

Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals

15%

Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

82%

Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Oriental Lisboa away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 2.27 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.81

Oriental Lisboa attack 0.82 + Sporting CP B defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

64%

level

22%

Oriental Lisboa scores more

14%

Sporting CP B at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Rafael Camacho

47'

Herlander

49'

Duarte CoelhoOwn goal

56'

Pedro Marques

58'

Márcio Augusto← Tomás Cintra

63'

Marco Túlio← Nuno Moreira

77'

Edu Pinheiro← Tomás Silva

79'

Hugo Santos← Rúben Gouveia

85'

Loide Augusto← João Oliveira

85'

Miguel Rodeia← Rafael Pinto

85'

Vitor Fati← Varudo

86'

Vitor Fati

Sporting

Oriental

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: Filipe Çelikkaya

63'▲Marco Túlio←▼Nuno Moreira

77'▲Edu Pinheiro←▼Tomás Silva

85'▲Loide Augusto←▼João Oliveira

Sporting CP B substitutes

TúlioPinheiroAugusto

Manager: Rui Gregório

58'▲Márcio Augusto←▼Tomás Cintra

79'▲Hugo Santos←▼Rúben Gouveia

85'▲Miguel Rodeia←▼Rafael Pinto

85'▲Vitor Fati←▼Varudo

Oriental Lisboa substitutes

AugustoSantosRodeiaFati

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Sporting CP B 3–2 Oriental Lisboa

Sporting CP B beat Oriental Lisboa 3-2 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on January 17, 2021.

Goals: Rafael Camacho (44'), Herlander (47'), Duarte Coelho (49' o.g.), Pedro Marques (56'), Vitor Fati (86').

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.

Sporting CP B vs Oriental Lisboa — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Sporting CP B 3–2 Oriental Lisboa