Sporting CP B 1–1 Olímpico do Montijo

Sporting CP B

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olímpico do Montijo

3/3/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 16CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting CP B71%

×Draw19%

Olímpico do Montijo11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchOlímpico do Montijo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.69

Sporting CP B

2.13

Olímpico do Montijo

0.69

Sporting CP B creates 209% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.27

creates per match

0.82

0.55

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sporting CP B

2.27

Olímpico do Montijo

0.82

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.55

Olímpico do Montijo

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Olímpico do Montijo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

89%

Sporting CP B or Olímpico do Montijo

81%

Draw or Olímpico do Montijo

29%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

46%

Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

88%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

63%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

35%

Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals

50%

Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals

15%

Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

87%

Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Olímpico do Montijo away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 2.27 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Olímpico do Montijo attack 0.82 + Sporting CP B defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

71%

level

19%

Olímpico do Montijo scores more

11%

Sporting CP B at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff