Sporting CP B 2–3 Moncarapachense: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Moncarapachense

Vando Félix 41', 7'

Josemar Agostinho 76'

Ricardo Dâmaso 51'

J. San Martín 42'

8/20/2022

Liga 3 · Round 1CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sporting CP B54%

×Draw24%

Moncarapachense22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchMoncarapachense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.01

Sporting CP B

1.73

Moncarapachense

1.01

Sporting CP B creates 71% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 14 away

1.47

creates per match

1.07

0.95

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.47

Moncarapachense

1.07

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.95

Moncarapachense

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Moncarapachense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Moncarapachense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

78%

Sporting CP B or Moncarapachense

76%

Draw or Moncarapachense

46%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

30%

Moncarapachense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

82%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

52%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

25%

Moncarapachense 1+ goals

64%

Moncarapachense 2+ goals

27%

Moncarapachense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

71%

Moncarapachense (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 58 matches

Moncarapachense away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.47 + Moncarapachense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Moncarapachense attack 1.07 + Sporting CP B defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

54%

level

24%

Moncarapachense scores more

22%

Sporting CP B at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

41'

42'

49'

49'

51'

54'

Miguel Menino← Samuel Justo

54'

Josemar Agostinho← Tiago Baptista

55'

Francisco Canário← Kiko Félix

55'

Afonso Moreira← André Gonçalves

62'

Renato Veiga← Diogo Abreu

69'

Evandro Barros← David Kong

69'

João Oliveira← David Calderon

76'

Josemar Agostinho

77'

Diogo Cabral← Vando Félix

78'

Ismael Fatadjo← Ricardo Dâmaso

Sporting

Moncarapachense

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Félix

Manager: Filipe Çelikkaya

54'▲Miguel Menino←▼Samuel Justo

55'▲Francisco Canário←▼Kiko Félix

55'▲Afonso Moreira←▼André Gonçalves

62'▲Renato Veiga←▼Diogo Abreu

77'▲Diogo Cabral←▼Vando Félix

Sporting CP B substitutes

MeninoCanárioMoreiraVeigaCabral

Manager: Luís Manuel

54'▲Josemar Agostinho←▼Tiago Baptista

69'▲Evandro Barros←▼David Kong

69'▲João Oliveira←▼David Calderon

78'▲Ismael Fatadjo←▼Ricardo Dâmaso

Moncarapachense substitutes

AgostinhoBarrosOliveiraFatadjo

Liga 3: Sporting CP B 2–3 Moncarapachense

Moncarapachense beat Sporting CP B 3-2 in Liga 3 on August 20, 2022.

Goals: Vando Félix (7', 41'), J. San Martín (42'), Ricardo Dâmaso (51'), Josemar Agostinho (76').

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.

Sporting CP B vs Moncarapachense — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga 3: Sporting CP B 2–3 Moncarapachense