Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sporting CP B vs Leixoes — Segunda Liga 2018

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leixoes
Leixoes
Paulinho 11'
Breitner 45' (pen)
10/29/2017Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 11CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira (Alcochete)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B40%
×Draw26%
Leixoes34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.35
Leixoes
1.23

Sporting CP B creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 130 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Leixoes
1.04

allows per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Leixoes
1.29

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
Leixoes+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Leixoes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
66%
Sporting CP B or Leixoes
74%
Draw or Leixoes
60%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
18%
Leixoes wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
74%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
39%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
15%
Leixoes 1+ goals
71%
Leixoes 2+ goals
35%
Leixoes 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
54%
Leixoes (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Leixoes away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + Leixoes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Leixoes attack 1.04 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
40%
level
26%
Leixoes scores more
34%

Sporting CP B at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Paulinho
45'
BreitnerPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting CP B 1 – 1 Leixoes

Sporting CP B and Leixoes drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on October 29, 2017.

Goals: Paulinho (11'), Breitner (45' pen).

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira (Alcochete).