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Sporting CP B vs Ideal — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ideal
Ideal
4/3/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 21CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting CP B69%
×Draw19%
Ideal12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
2.18
Ideal
0.78

Sporting CP B creates 179% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
2.27
Ideal
1.00

allows per match

Sporting CP B
0.55
Ideal
2.09

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
Ideal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Ideal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
88%
Sporting CP B or Ideal
81%
Draw or Ideal
31%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
45%
Ideal wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
89%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
64%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
37%
Ideal 1+ goals
54%
Ideal 2+ goals
18%
Ideal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
85%
Ideal (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Ideal away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 2.27 + Ideal defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.18

Ideal attack 1.00 + Sporting CP B defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
69%
level
19%
Ideal scores more
12%

Sporting CP B at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Sporting CP B 2–0 Ideal

Sporting CP B beat Ideal 2-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.