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Sporting CP B vs FC Porto B — Segunda Liga 2018

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
Preview
15:00
FC Porto B
FC Porto B
5/2/2027Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 32CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira
41%
Sporting CP B
model favours
41%26%33%

Sporting CP B sit 14, FC Porto B 4 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B41%
×Draw26%
FC Porto B33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.46
FC Porto B
1.28

Sporting CP B creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 128 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
FC Porto B
1.15

allows per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
FC Porto B
1.52

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
FC Porto B+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

FC Porto B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
67%
Sporting CP B or FC Porto B
74%
Draw or FC Porto B
59%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
20%
FC Porto B wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
77%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
43%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
18%
FC Porto B 1+ goals
72%
FC Porto B 2+ goals
37%
FC Porto B 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
56%
FC Porto B (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

FC Porto B away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + FC Porto B defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

FC Porto B attack 1.15 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
41%
level
26%
FC Porto B scores more
33%

Sporting CP B at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sporting CP B
Balanced
FC Porto B
Balanced
55%Possession51%
82%Pass accuracy77%
10.2ShotsBiggest gap8.6
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sporting CP BFC Porto B

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
B
DLLLL
B
WWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting CP B face FC Porto B (Segunda Liga)

Segunda Liga returns with Sporting CP B hosting FC Porto B. Match starts May 2, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sporting CP B host FC Porto B at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.