FC Porto B 2–1 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats

FC Porto B

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting CP B

G. Sousa 55'

J. Teixeira 51'

S. Justo 27'

1/11/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 16Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FC Porto B44%

×Draw27%

Sporting CP B30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Porto BExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.10

FC Porto B

1.39

Sporting CP B

1.10

FC Porto B creates 26% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 26 away

1.42

creates per match

0.96

1.24

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

FC Porto B

1.42

Sporting CP B

0.96

allows per match

FC Porto B

1.24

Sporting CP B

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Porto B+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto B ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Porto B or draw

70%

FC Porto B or Sporting CP B

73%

Draw or Sporting CP B

56%

Winning margin

FC Porto B wins by 2+

21%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Porto B 1+ goals

75%

FC Porto B 2+ goals

40%

FC Porto B 3+ goals

16%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

67%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

30%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC Porto B (draw refunded)

59%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto B at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 125 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto B attack 1.42 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + FC Porto B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Porto B scores more

44%

level

27%

Sporting CP B scores more

30%

FC Porto B at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Porto B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Domingos Andrade

27'

S. Justo↳ E. Felicissimo

29'

Eduardo Felicíssimo

37'

Samuel Justo

46'

G. Sousa← Y. Karamoh

51'

Kaua Oliveira← E. Felicissimo

51'

J. Teixeira↳ D. Rodrigues

55'

G. Sousa↳ D. Rodrigues

67'

L. Anjos← M. Mendonca

67'

M. Couto← J. Silva

73'

T. Melnichenko← L. Vonic

73'

A. Oliveira← J. Teixeira

77'

Kauã Oliveira

78'

R. Besugo← R. Ribeiro

78'

G. Silva← S. Justo

84'

Chelmik← D. Rodrigues

85'

Gabriel Silva

88'

T. Silva← D. Andrade

Statistics

FCSporting

Discipline

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0