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Sporting CP B vs Fabril Barreiro — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Fabril Barreiro
Fabril Barreiro
12/13/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 7CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting CP B65%
×Draw21%
Fabril Barreiro14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.91
Fabril Barreiro
0.73

Sporting CP B creates 162% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
2.27
Fabril Barreiro
0.91

allows per match

Sporting CP B
0.55
Fabril Barreiro
1.55

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Fabril Barreiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
86%
Sporting CP B or Fabril Barreiro
79%
Draw or Fabril Barreiro
35%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
40%
Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
85%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
57%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
30%
Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals
52%
Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals
17%
Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
83%
Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Fabril Barreiro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 2.27 + Fabril Barreiro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.91

Fabril Barreiro attack 0.91 + Sporting CP B defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
65%
level
21%
Fabril Barreiro scores more
14%

Sporting CP B at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Sporting CP B 3–0 Fabril Barreiro

Sporting CP B beat Fabril Barreiro 3-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.