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Sporting CP B vs Belenenses II — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Belenenses II
Belenenses II
10/25/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 4CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting CP B65%
×Draw22%
Belenenses II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.81
Belenenses II
0.64

Sporting CP B creates 183% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
2.27
Belenenses II
0.73

allows per match

Sporting CP B
0.55
Belenenses II
1.36

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
Belenenses II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Belenenses II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
87%
Sporting CP B or Belenenses II
78%
Draw or Belenenses II
35%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
39%
Belenenses II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
84%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
54%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
27%
Belenenses II 1+ goals
47%
Belenenses II 2+ goals
14%
Belenenses II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
84%
Belenenses II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Belenenses II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 2.27 + Belenenses II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.81

Belenenses II attack 0.73 + Sporting CP B defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
65%
level
22%
Belenenses II scores more
13%

Sporting CP B at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G: Sporting CP B 4–1 Belenenses II

Sporting CP B beat Belenenses II 4-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.