Sporting CP B 2–0 Amarante: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Sporting CP B

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Amarante

Afonso Moreira 61'

Rafael Besugo 34'

5/17/2025

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 14CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sporting CP B42%

×Draw28%

Amarante30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchAmarante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.02

Sporting CP B

1.25

Amarante

1.02

Sporting CP B creates 23% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 32 away

1.47

creates per match

1.09

0.95

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.47

Amarante

1.09

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.95

Amarante

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Amarante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Amarante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

70%

Sporting CP B or Amarante

72%

Draw or Amarante

58%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

18%

Amarante wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

71%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

36%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

13%

Amarante 1+ goals

64%

Amarante 2+ goals

27%

Amarante 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

58%

Amarante (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 58 matches

Amarante away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.47 + Amarante defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Amarante attack 1.09 + Sporting CP B defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

42%

level

28%

Amarante scores more

30%

Sporting CP B at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

B. Zakari

34'

Rafael Besugo

40'

H. Arreiol

43'

Lucas Anjos← José Silva

46'

F. Okoli← Tiago Antunes

46'

Cardoso← B. Zakari

58'

Hélder Pedro← Rúben Filipe

58'

C. Iroanya← João Filipe

61'

Afonso Moreira

65'

F. Cardoso

66'

69'

Luís Gomes← Manuel Mendonça

69'

Chico Sousa← Obama Ribeiro

78'

Gabriel Silva← Afonso Moreira

78'

Lucas Taibo← Mauro Couto

78'

Flávio Gonçalves← Rafael Besugo

80'

G. Silva

Sporting

Amarante

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Besugo

⚽

▼

Moreira

▼

Couto

Manager: João Gião

43'▲Lucas Anjos←▼José Silva

69'▲Luís Gomes←▼Manuel Mendonça

78'▲Gabriel Silva←▼Afonso Moreira

78'▲Lucas Taibo←▼Mauro Couto

78'▲Flávio Gonçalves←▼Rafael Besugo

Sporting CP B substitutes

AnjosGomesSilvaTaiboGonçalves

Manager: Álvaro Madureira

46'▲F. Okoli←▼Tiago Antunes

46'▲Cardoso←▼B. Zakari

58'▲Hélder Pedro←▼Rúben Filipe

58'▲C. Iroanya←▼João Filipe

69'▲Chico Sousa←▼Obama Ribeiro

Amarante substitutes

OkoliCardosoPedroIroanyaSousa

Liga 3: Sporting CP B 2–0 Amarante

Sporting CP B beat Amarante 2-0 in Liga 3 on May 17, 2025.

Goals: Rafael Besugo (34'), Afonso Moreira (61').

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.

Sporting CP B vs Amarante — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga 3: Sporting CP B 2–0 Amarante