Sporting CP B 1–2 Academico Viseu: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Academico Viseu

P. Cardoso 8'

Joao Guilherme 70'

C. Kahraman 14'

1/4/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 17CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B39%

×Draw26%

Academico Viseu35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchAcademico Viseu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.29

Sporting CP B

1.37

Academico Viseu

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 128 away

1.41

creates per match

1.18

1.41

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.41

Academico Viseu

1.18

allows per match

Sporting CP B

1.41

Academico Viseu

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Academico Viseu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

65%

Sporting CP B or Academico Viseu

74%

Draw or Academico Viseu

61%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

18%

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

75%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

40%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

16%

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

72%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

37%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

52%

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + Academico Viseu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Academico Viseu attack 1.18 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

39%

level

26%

Academico Viseu scores more

35%

Sporting CP B at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

14'

35'

37'

38'

61'

61'

D. Braganca← M. Mendonca

61'

M. Tanlongo← R. Mota

70'

Joao Guilherme↳ S. Messeguem

72'

Diego Callai

75'

Rafael Nel

75'

Nikolaos Michelis

77'

Rayan Lucas← Kaua Oliveira

77'

L. Anjos← J. Silva

77'

G. Silva← M. Couto

78'

L. Gohi← C. Kahraman

78'

B. Silva← Joao Guilherme

81'

S. Kone← T. Silva

88'

Pedro Barcelos← T. Domingos

88'

B. Rojas← A. Zamora

Statistics

SportingAcademico

Discipline

5Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0