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Sporting Braga W vs Vitoria Guimaraes W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Sporting Braga W
Sporting Braga W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vitoria Guimaraes W
Vitoria Guimaraes W
5/10/20261a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sporting Braga W61%
×Draw22%
Vitoria Guimaraes W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Braga W
1.88
Vitoria Guimaraes W
0.88

Sporting Braga W creates 114% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sporting Braga W
2.31
Vitoria Guimaraes W
0.78

allows per match

Sporting Braga W
0.98
Vitoria Guimaraes W
1.44

finishing

Sporting Braga W+0.00on par
Vitoria Guimaraes W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga W ↓

Vitoria Guimaraes W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sporting Braga W or draw
83%
Sporting Braga W or Vitoria Guimaraes W
78%
Draw or Vitoria Guimaraes W
39%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga W wins by 2+
36%
Vitoria Guimaraes W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sporting Braga W 1+ goals
85%
Sporting Braga W 2+ goals
56%
Sporting Braga W 3+ goals
29%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 1+ goals
59%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 2+ goals
22%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)
78%
Vitoria Guimaraes W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Vitoria Guimaraes W away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga W attack 2.31 + Vitoria Guimaraes W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.88

Vitoria Guimaraes W attack 0.78 + Sporting Braga W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sporting Braga W scores more
61%
level
22%
Vitoria Guimaraes W scores more
17%

Sporting Braga W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Braga W vs Vitoria Guimaraes W

Sporting Braga W beat Vitoria Guimaraes W 2-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on May 10, 2026.