Sporting Braga W 4–0 Vilaverdense W: Result & Stats

Sporting Braga W

FT

4 – 0

Vilaverdense W

3/8/2025

1a Divisão - Women · Round 13Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sporting Braga W75%

×Draw15%

Vilaverdense W10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Braga WExpected goals in this matchVilaverdense W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

0.87

Sporting Braga W

2.70

Vilaverdense W

0.87

Sporting Braga W creates 210% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 33 away

2.31

creates per match

0.76

0.98

allows per match

3.09

creates per match

Sporting Braga W

2.31

Vilaverdense W

0.76

allows per match

Sporting Braga W

0.98

Vilaverdense W

3.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Braga W+0.00on par

Vilaverdense W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga W ↓

Vilaverdense W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sporting Braga W or draw

90%

Sporting Braga W or Vilaverdense W

85%

Draw or Vilaverdense W

25%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga W wins by 2+

54%

Vilaverdense W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sporting Braga W 1+ goals

93%

Sporting Braga W 2+ goals

75%

Sporting Braga W 3+ goals

50%

Vilaverdense W 1+ goals

58%

Vilaverdense W 2+ goals

22%

Vilaverdense W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)

89%

Vilaverdense W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Vilaverdense W away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga W attack 2.31 + Vilaverdense W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.70

Vilaverdense W attack 0.76 + Sporting Braga W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sporting Braga W scores more

75%

level

15%

Vilaverdense W scores more

10%

Sporting Braga W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff