Sporting Braga W 1–3 SL Benfica W: Result & Stats

Sporting Braga W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

SL Benfica W

4/25/2026

1a Divisão - Women · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sporting Braga W27%

×Draw22%

SL Benfica W52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Braga WExpected goals in this matchSL Benfica W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.04

Sporting Braga W

1.41

SL Benfica W

2.04

SL Benfica W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

2.31

creates per match

3.10

0.98

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Sporting Braga W

2.31

SL Benfica W

3.10

allows per match

Sporting Braga W

0.98

SL Benfica W

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Braga W+0.00on par

SL Benfica W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga W ↓

SL Benfica W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sporting Braga W or draw

48%

Sporting Braga W or SL Benfica W

78%

Draw or SL Benfica W

73%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga W wins by 2+

12%

SL Benfica W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Sporting Braga W 1+ goals

76%

Sporting Braga W 2+ goals

41%

Sporting Braga W 3+ goals

17%

SL Benfica W 1+ goals

87%

SL Benfica W 2+ goals

60%

SL Benfica W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)

34%

SL Benfica W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

SL Benfica W away — creates 3.10, concedes 0.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga W attack 2.31 + SL Benfica W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

SL Benfica W attack 3.10 + Sporting Braga W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sporting Braga W scores more

27%

level

22%

SL Benfica W scores more

52%

SL Benfica W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SL Benfica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff