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Sporting Braga W vs Racing Seixal W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Sporting Braga W
Sporting Braga W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Seixal W
Racing Seixal W
3/3/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 17Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sporting Braga W47%
×Draw24%
Racing Seixal W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Braga W
1.70
Racing Seixal W
1.27

Sporting Braga W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sporting Braga W
2.31
Racing Seixal W
1.55

allows per match

Sporting Braga W
0.98
Racing Seixal W
1.09

finishing

Sporting Braga W+0.00on par
Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga W ↓

Racing Seixal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sporting Braga W or draw
71%
Sporting Braga W or Racing Seixal W
76%
Draw or Racing Seixal W
53%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga W wins by 2+
25%
Racing Seixal W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sporting Braga W 1+ goals
82%
Sporting Braga W 2+ goals
51%
Sporting Braga W 3+ goals
24%
Racing Seixal W 1+ goals
72%
Racing Seixal W 2+ goals
36%
Racing Seixal W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)
62%
Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Racing Seixal W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga W attack 2.31 + Racing Seixal W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.70

Racing Seixal W attack 1.55 + Sporting Braga W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sporting Braga W scores more
47%
level
24%
Racing Seixal W scores more
29%

Sporting Braga W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Braga W vs Racing Seixal W

Sporting Braga W beat Racing Seixal W 2-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on March 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Braga.