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Sporting Braga W vs Ouriense W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Sporting Braga W
Sporting Braga W
FT
5 – 0
Ouriense W
Ouriense W
12/17/20231a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 9Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sporting Braga W74%
×Draw16%
Ouriense W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Braga W
2.52
Ouriense W
0.81

Sporting Braga W creates 211% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sporting Braga W
2.31
Ouriense W
0.64

allows per match

Sporting Braga W
0.98
Ouriense W
2.73

finishing

Sporting Braga W+0.00on par
Ouriense W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga W ↓

Ouriense W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sporting Braga W or draw
90%
Sporting Braga W or Ouriense W
84%
Draw or Ouriense W
26%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga W wins by 2+
52%
Ouriense W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sporting Braga W 1+ goals
92%
Sporting Braga W 2+ goals
71%
Sporting Braga W 3+ goals
45%
Ouriense W 1+ goals
56%
Ouriense W 2+ goals
19%
Ouriense W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)
88%
Ouriense W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Ouriense W away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga W attack 2.31 + Ouriense W defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.52

Ouriense W attack 0.64 + Sporting Braga W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sporting Braga W scores more
74%
level
16%
Ouriense W scores more
10%

Sporting Braga W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Braga W vs Ouriense W

Sporting Braga W beat Ouriense W 5-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Braga.