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Sporting Braga W vs Damaiense W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Sporting Braga W
Sporting Braga W
FT
1 – 2
Damaiense W
Damaiense W
5/4/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 21Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sporting Braga W60%
×Draw21%
Damaiense W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Braga W
2.08
Damaiense W
1.08

Sporting Braga W creates 93% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sporting Braga W
2.31
Damaiense W
1.19

allows per match

Sporting Braga W
0.98
Damaiense W
1.86

finishing

Sporting Braga W+0.00on par
Damaiense W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga W ↓

Damaiense W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sporting Braga W or draw
81%
Sporting Braga W or Damaiense W
79%
Draw or Damaiense W
40%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga W wins by 2+
37%
Damaiense W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sporting Braga W 1+ goals
87%
Sporting Braga W 2+ goals
61%
Sporting Braga W 3+ goals
34%
Damaiense W 1+ goals
66%
Damaiense W 2+ goals
29%
Damaiense W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)
76%
Damaiense W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Damaiense W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga W attack 2.31 + Damaiense W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.08

Damaiense W attack 1.19 + Sporting Braga W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sporting Braga W scores more
60%
level
21%
Damaiense W scores more
19%

Sporting Braga W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Sporting Braga W 1–2 Damaiense W

Damaiense W beat Sporting Braga W 2-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Braga.