Sporting Braga U23 4–2 Gil Vicente U23

Sporting Braga U23

4 – 2

Gil Vicente U23

5/6/2023

Taça Revelação U23 · Group Stage - 1Cidade Desportiva SC Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sporting Braga U2348%

×Draw22%

Gil Vicente U2330%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Braga U23Expected goals in this matchGil Vicente U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.50

Sporting Braga U23

1.94

Gil Vicente U23

1.50

Sporting Braga U23 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.89

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sporting Braga U23

1.89

Gil Vicente U23

2.00

allows per match

Sporting Braga U23

1.00

Gil Vicente U23

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Braga U23+0.00on par

Gil Vicente U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga U23 ↓

Gil Vicente U23 →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sporting Braga U23 or draw

70%

Sporting Braga U23 or Gil Vicente U23

78%

Draw or Gil Vicente U23

52%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga U23 wins by 2+

27%

Gil Vicente U23 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sporting Braga U23 1+ goals

86%

Sporting Braga U23 2+ goals

58%

Sporting Braga U23 3+ goals

30%

Gil Vicente U23 1+ goals

78%

Gil Vicente U23 2+ goals

44%

Gil Vicente U23 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga U23 (draw refunded)

61%

Gil Vicente U23 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga U23 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Gil Vicente U23 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga U23 attack 1.89 + Gil Vicente U23 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Gil Vicente U23 attack 2.00 + Sporting Braga U23 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sporting Braga U23 scores more

48%

level

22%

Gil Vicente U23 scores more

30%

Sporting Braga U23 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sporting Braga U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff