Sporting Braga U19 1–0 Napoli U19: Result & Stats

Sporting Braga U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Napoli U19

Jonatás Noro 9'

9/20/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Cidade Desportiva SC Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sporting Braga U1980%

×Draw16%

Napoli U194%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Braga U19Expected goals in this matchNapoli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.27

Sporting Braga U19

2.07

Napoli U19

0.27

Sporting Braga U19 creates 667% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

0.67

creates per match

0.53

0.00

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Sporting Braga U19

0.67

Napoli U19

0.53

allows per match

Sporting Braga U19

0.00

Napoli U19

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Braga U19+0.00on par

Napoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga U19 ↓

Napoli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–13%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–021%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (21%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sporting Braga U19 or draw

96%

Sporting Braga U19 or Napoli U19

84%

Draw or Napoli U19

20%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga U19 wins by 2+

54%

Napoli U19 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Sporting Braga U19 1+ goals

87%

Sporting Braga U19 2+ goals

61%

Sporting Braga U19 3+ goals

34%

Napoli U19 1+ goals

24%

Napoli U19 2+ goals

3%

Napoli U19 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga U19 (draw refunded)

95%

Napoli U19 (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Napoli U19 away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga U19 attack 0.67 + Napoli U19 defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.07

Napoli U19 attack 0.53 + Sporting Braga U19 defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Sporting Braga U19 scores more

80%

level

16%

Napoli U19 scores more

4%

Sporting Braga U19 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Sporting Braga U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

G. Costa

9'

Jonatás Noro

61'

A. Schiavio← E. De Chiara

61'

F. Lorusso← M. Malasomma

62'

Kauan Kelvin← Dinis Rodrigues

69'

C. Raggioli← G. Vigliotti

69'

N. Mutanda← L. Russo

79'

Rúben Furtado← Afonso Duarte

79'

Tiago Baptista← João Vasconcelos

84'

Henrique Sá← Guilherme Costa

84'

João Faria← Diego Rodrigues

84'

P. Stasi← F. Gioielli

Sporting

Napoli

1

6

5

3

7

▼

Gioielli

2

Peluso

8

▼

Chiara

4

▼

Russo

10

Vilardi

9

▼

Vigliotti

11

▼

Malasomma

1

Carvalho

5

Chissumba

4

⚽

Noro

3

Matos

2

▼

Costa

10

▼

Vasconcel

8

▼

Rodrigues

7

▼

Duarte

6

Barbosa

11

Fernandes

9

▼

Rodrigues

Manager: Pedro Pires

62'▲Kauan Kelvin←▼Dinis Rodrigues

79'▲Rúben Furtado←▼Afonso Duarte

79'▲Tiago Baptista←▼João Vasconcelos

84'▲Henrique Sá←▼Guilherme Costa

84'▲João Faria←▼Diego Rodrigues

Sporting Braga U19 substitutes

16Kelvin17Furtado18Baptista13Sá15Faria12Amorim14Salvador

Manager: A. Tedesco

61'▲A. Schiavio←▼E. De Chiara

61'▲F. Lorusso←▼M. Malasomma

69'▲C. Raggioli←▼G. Vigliotti

69'▲N. Mutanda←▼L. Russo

84'▲P. Stasi←▼F. Gioielli

Napoli U19 substitutes

15Schiavio17Lorusso18Raggioli16Mutanda14Stasi12Pellino13Luca