Sporting Braga U19 2–1 Feirense U19: Result & Stats

Sporting Braga U19

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Feirense U19

9/15/2024

League #1041 · Round 6Cidade Desportiva SC Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sporting Braga U1947%

×Draw23%

Feirense U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Braga U19Expected goals in this matchFeirense U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.45

Sporting Braga U19

1.85

Feirense U19

1.45

Sporting Braga U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

2.33

creates per match

1.23

1.67

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sporting Braga U19

2.33

Feirense U19

1.23

allows per match

Sporting Braga U19

1.67

Feirense U19

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Braga U19+0.00on par

Feirense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga U19 ↓

Feirense U19 →

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sporting Braga U19 or draw

70%

Sporting Braga U19 or Feirense U19

77%

Draw or Feirense U19

53%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga U19 wins by 2+

26%

Feirense U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sporting Braga U19 1+ goals

84%

Sporting Braga U19 2+ goals

55%

Sporting Braga U19 3+ goals

28%

Feirense U19 1+ goals

77%

Feirense U19 2+ goals

42%

Feirense U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Feirense U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Feirense U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga U19 attack 2.33 + Feirense U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Feirense U19 attack 1.23 + Sporting Braga U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sporting Braga U19 scores more

47%

level

23%

Feirense U19 scores more

30%

Sporting Braga U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sporting Braga U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1041: Sporting Braga U19 2–1 Feirense U19

Sporting Braga U19 beat Feirense U19 2-1 in League #1041 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Cidade Desportiva SC Braga in Braga.

Sporting Braga U19 vs Feirense U19 — League #1041 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

League #1041: Sporting Braga U19 2–1 Feirense U19