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Sporting Bertrange vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — Cup 2020

Sporting Bertrange
Sporting Bertrange
FT
1 – 3
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
10/3/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundPlaine Des Jeux André Wolff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sporting Bertrange5%
×Draw8%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg87%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Bertrange
0.97
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
4.13

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 326% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sporting Bertrange
1.50
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3.50

allows per match

Sporting Bertrange
4.75
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
0.44

finishing

Sporting Bertrange+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Bertrange ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–38%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Sporting Bertrange or draw
13%
Sporting Bertrange or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
92%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
95%

Winning margin

Sporting Bertrange wins by 2+
1%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
73%

Team goals

Sporting Bertrange 1+ goals
62%
Sporting Bertrange 2+ goals
25%
Sporting Bertrange 3+ goals
7%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
98%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
91%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
75%

Draw no bet

Sporting Bertrange (draw refunded)
5%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Bertrange at home — creates 1.50, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Bertrange attack 1.50 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.97

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 3.50 + Sporting Bertrange defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 4.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Sporting Bertrange scores more
5%
level
8%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
87%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting Bertrange 1 – 3 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Racing FC Union Luxembourg beat Sporting Bertrange 3-1 in Cup on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Plaine Des Jeux André Wolff in Bertrange.