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Sporting Bertrange vs AS Jeunesse Esch — Cup 2020

Sporting Bertrange
Sporting Bertrange
FT
1 – 7
HT: 1 – 2
AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
10/6/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundPlaine Des Jeux André Wolff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sporting Bertrange4%
×Draw7%
AS Jeunesse Esch89%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Bertrange
1.06
AS Jeunesse Esch
4.69

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 342% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sporting Bertrange
1.50
AS Jeunesse Esch
4.63

allows per match

Sporting Bertrange
4.75
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.63

finishing

Sporting Bertrange+0.00on par
AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Bertrange ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–37%
0–48%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
78%22%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Sporting Bertrange or draw
11%
Sporting Bertrange or AS Jeunesse Esch
93%
Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch
96%

Winning margin

Sporting Bertrange wins by 2+
1%
AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
77%

Team goals

Sporting Bertrange 1+ goals
65%
Sporting Bertrange 2+ goals
29%
Sporting Bertrange 3+ goals
9%
AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
99%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
94%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
81%

Draw no bet

Sporting Bertrange (draw refunded)
4%
AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Bertrange at home — creates 1.50, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 4.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Bertrange attack 1.50 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 4.63 + Sporting Bertrange defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 4.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Sporting Bertrange scores more
4%
level
7%
AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
89%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting Bertrange 1 – 7 AS Jeunesse Esch

AS Jeunesse Esch beat Sporting Bertrange 7-1 in Cup on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Plaine Des Jeux André Wolff in Bertrange.