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Sporting Ben Arous vs M'saken — Ligue 2 2020

Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
M'saken
M'saken
3/28/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sporting Ben Arous45%
×Draw32%
M'saken23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Ben Arous
1.09
M'saken
0.68

Sporting Ben Arous creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

creates per match

Sporting Ben Arous
0.98
M'saken
0.63

allows per match

Sporting Ben Arous
0.73
M'saken
1.20

finishing

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par
M'saken+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Ben Arous ↓

M'saken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sporting Ben Arous or draw
77%
Sporting Ben Arous or M'saken
68%
Draw or M'saken
55%

Winning margin

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
19%
M'saken wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
66%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
30%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
10%
M'saken 1+ goals
49%
M'saken 2+ goals
15%
M'saken 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
66%
M'saken (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Ben Arous at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

M'saken away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.20 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.98 + M'saken defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

M'saken attack 0.63 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sporting Ben Arous scores more
45%
level
32%
M'saken scores more
23%

Sporting Ben Arous at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting Ben Arous will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Ben Arous vs M'saken

M'saken beat Sporting Ben Arous 1-0 in Ligue 2 on March 28, 2026.