Sporting Ben Arous 0–1 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

Sporting Ben Arous

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

10/21/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade de Ben Arous

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sporting Ben Arous32%

×Draw33%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Ben ArousExpected goals in this matchJeunesse Sportive Omrane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

0.95

Sporting Ben Arous

0.88

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 23 away

0.98

creates per match

1.17

0.73

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Sporting Ben Arous

0.98

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

1.17

allows per match

Sporting Ben Arous

0.73

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Ben Arous ↓

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sporting Ben Arous or draw

64%

Sporting Ben Arous or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

67%

Draw or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

68%

Winning margin

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+

11%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals

59%

Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals

22%

Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals

6%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals

61%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals

25%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)

47%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Ben Arous at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.98 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.88

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 1.17 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sporting Ben Arous scores more

32%

level

33%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more

36%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff