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Sporting Ben Arous vs ES Zarzis — Ligue 2 2020

Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
10/30/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade de Ben Arous

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sporting Ben Arous33%
×Draw30%
ES Zarzis37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Ben Arous
0.99
ES Zarzis
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sporting Ben Arous
0.98
ES Zarzis
1.39

allows per match

Sporting Ben Arous
0.73
ES Zarzis
1.00

finishing

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par
ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Ben Arous ↓

ES Zarzis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sporting Ben Arous or draw
63%
Sporting Ben Arous or ES Zarzis
70%
Draw or ES Zarzis
67%

Winning margin

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
12%
ES Zarzis wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
63%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
26%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
8%
ES Zarzis 1+ goals
65%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
29%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
47%
ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Ben Arous at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

ES Zarzis away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.98 + ES Zarzis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

ES Zarzis attack 1.39 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sporting Ben Arous scores more
33%
level
30%
ES Zarzis scores more
37%

ES Zarzis at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Sporting Ben Arous 2–1 ES Zarzis

Sporting Ben Arous beat ES Zarzis 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Ben Arous in Ben Arous.